Monday, July 13, 2015

Hometown Season 30: The Vote

Look! Some overly complicated graph!
Oh, the IFA cap.  The current rule states:

"No team may spend in excess of $30M on international prospects in a single season. Franchises who violate this rule must accept a $3M prospect cash penalty in the following season for every $1M over the $30M limit. Owners who fail to comply with the rule will be penalized and warned, and repeat offenders will be expelled from the world. The owner will also be required to release the International Free Agent commanding the largest bonus into the following season's free agent pool."

I've put together some data on the IFA signings since the rule went into effect in season 22.  What is striking about the data I've put together is that the teams that have signed 'max' IFA players have been above average or elite teams.  Of the 18 total IFAs signed at 'max' deals, only 6 went to teams with records below .500 (one of which was 80-82).  It's also worth noting that only 11 teams accounted for the 18 signings, and 5 of the teams had more than one since S22.  This suggests that the rule doesn't really benefit 'rebuilding' teams.

The rule was originally put in place to improve the competitive balance of the world and discourage tanking with paltry payrolls.  The MWR has been instituted since then so the IFA cap is no longer really needed for maintaining competitive balance.

I'll be sending each team a TC asking for their vote on whether to 'keep' the rule or 'drop' the current rule and go back to an uncapped IFA situation starting in S31.

- The Commish

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Hometown Season 29 - LCS Preview

So bored...

Hometown Season 29
League Championship Series Preview
A pair of rematches from Season 28 LCS, the #1-2 seeds showed their might against the lower seeds even when they were down. Now on the eve of the LCS, let’s take a look at each non-inspiring, not- very-exciting, basically boring-as-&%$#, groundhog day matchup:

#1 Dover vs. #2 Toronto
After being swept in the LCS last season, Toronto went out and spent big on Albert Diaz and traded for Kyle Hampton, hoping for a rematch.  This is also the same matchup that Dover looked at and said, “whatevs, we still got JJ.”

Toronto will win if: Kyle Hampton starts hitting like he did in Helena and a starting pitcher not named Mark Riccardi starts and wins 2 games.
Toronto will lose if: their 3-4-5 hitters are overmatched by Dover’s starters and Mark Riccardi looks more like (a young) Uncle Cy than Cy Young (runner-up).

Dover will win if: Earl Drew pitches like a true #2.
Dover will lose if: Earl Drew pitches like he did against Buffalo and his mediocre regular season.

Prediction: Could we potentially see Mark Riccardi vs. JJ three times in the series? I’m sure hoping so. Dover’s offense is going to sputter to start the series but will right the ship and put up a few big games against Toronto’s pitching staff. Toronto should be able to beat up on guys not named Johnson and Drew, but it won’t be enough. Dover wins in 6.

#1 Madison vs. #2 Pawtucket
Boring. We know the people wanted to see a Huntington-Scranton LCS, but to no avail. Instead it will be the Cheesehead State vs. The Smallest State (but hey, we were one of the original colonies). Again, boring! Blah-blah-blah-blah-blah.

Pawtucket will win if: Ernie Shaw continues his torrid pace and Venafro is Venafro.
Pawtucket will lose if: The starting pitching doesn’t take them into the 7th inning each game and they don’t at least split on the road.

Madison will win if: Dmitri Wheeler and Alexei Bazardo can just hit .250 each.
Madison will lose if: They continue to play like crap (see what I mean about boring).

Prediction: Feel good story Ernie Shaw has been a real bright spot this postseason for Pawtucket. Madison’s big names haven’t nearly produced like that have in past (see Wheeler and Bazardo to name a few), but just give them time.  For my money, I am putting it on Madison. Madison wins in 6.

And like almost everything else, I have been wrong A LOT this season. So why should this be any different. Good luck to the Final Four.