Tuesday, February 24, 2009

1st Pick of Season 7 Draft

The Toledo Mud Hens selected Rick Post as the first pick of the Season 7 Draft. When I first saw the selection, my eyes bugged out. I couldn't believe a catcher for a #1 pick overall. I would have expected a Cy Young type pitcher, a power defensive CF or SS before a catcher but I couldn't see his numbers. I imagine the choice was simple in Toledo's mind however. A catcher of his ability is next to impossible to get. Furthermore that kind of talented catcher could command all three in a trade. I applaud the selection as I would have done the same.

Now what to do with the pick. Fast track or not? After looking over the situation with Toledo's LA and HA teams, standings and coaches, there is little chance that Toledo could make a run for a playoff spot without help in other areas. In simple terms, one hitter could help, but pitching isn't there. Coaching is a non-issue as the rookie coaches will have the same effect. My estimation is the RL is the best place to start.

With a 46 overall and with my advance scouting sees him as a monster hitting defensive PC catcher with an 86 future value. And that could be off up or down by 3 points depending. Knowledge tells me, a point here and there could easily put him in the 90's, so I doubt it would be less.

What to look for during his RL season. Chances are his hitting abilities will easily improve during the season. Fielding abilities may improve slightly. My thoughts he will be a 48 to 50 overall at seasons end even with 1st promotion this year or next. Speaking of promotion, I would do it at the end of the season for this person. The reason is simple, he will make the Spring Training roster next year, so it would be more advantageous this year. After rollover this year, I would expect his overall to move to a 51 or 52 minimum and could go as high as 56. If his patience stays near 50 after roll over I would expect the biggest possible one year advance after his 2nd season.