Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Leading Prospects

A list of the leading prospects was listed and the stats look real impressive to say the least. However what is inside the numbers? For one all those stats are for players in Hi A ball. Unusually overrated players get good results at the lower levels. So lets take an indepth look at those players.

Banana Douglass, Other than a dumb first name, he is listed as a 2B as his primary position and has a high overall. On most teams he would be in AA at the least. For one, he won't be able to play the primary position at the ML level and would have to be content at playing COF. He could play at the ML level as soon as next year if desired or another year split at the high minors. The biggest problem I see is that he is an injury risk and a serious one could end his career quickly.

Peter Selby is a wow of of a long ball hitter compiling 151 dingers in his 3 plus short seasons already. Has the eye, the vsR to be good and oh, the power, but lacks the good contact. I would say he might hit 40+ at the ML level if the schedule includes a lot of plus parks and weak pitchers. His fielding is another concern as he would be a weak COF and may be delegated to 1B. Doubtful that he would be considered as a DH. An injury, though doubtful at this time, could possibly end his career quick with his less than impressive makeup.

Michael Skinner has a wow wow of 75 long balls, 194 RBI's and a .335 average. However the chance of him being in a ML uniform is probably non-existent as he can't play a position and DH would not work with such low contact and splits. Then again I have seen stranger things.

Eduardo Rincon looks like a great pitcher to be and has a lot of room to grow yet. He would have looked a lot better if it hadn't been for the injury last season that cut his growth short. Can he overcome that pitfall and not become injury prone remains to be seen. How close he comes to his projections is also at peril.

David Cruz is another outstanding looking pitcher although somewhat short in the pitch department. His current injury sounds worse than led to believe but could his career be injury plagued also?

Vicente Perez whose numbers in two seasons are impressive, 31-6 with 2 complete games. How good will he be at higher levels remains to be seen however.

Analysis: 5 Hi A players for Toronto sounds impressive until one breaks down the numbers. 3 of the 5 have ML potential, IMO at least, if injury or further injury doesn't shorten their careers. How great they might be is is a wait and see. As for Vicente Perez, he is no Cy Young pitcher except in the minors IMHO.